Newspapers help shape our understanding of social, political, and economic issues. They are powerful sources of knowledge, which is why they are essential tools for candidates preparing for top competitive exams like RBI Grade B, SEBI Grade A, and NABARD Grade A. However, finding reliable and concise news analysis can be tough. That’s where Vishleshan for regulatory exams steps in. It offers an in-depth analysis of important articles from leading financial newspapers such as Mint, making your exam preparation smarter and faster. Today we’ll shed light on news highlights and insights for June 13, 2025, where we’ll analyze the impact of the caste census and inflation trends.

Also, check the News Analysis of 12th June 2025 

Cast Census: A Pandora’s Box That Needs To Be Opened

Context: Caste enumeration is a necessary exercise that will inevitably change the composition and politics of this social identity marker. Such a headcount wouldn’t just record reality, but may actually alter it—through the use of pre-set caste lists.

Source: Mint

India, a nation known for its vast diversity, is on the cusp of a significant demographic undertaking: the 2021 Population Census, now anticipated in 2027, is expected to include caste enumeration. This would mark the first time national-level caste data has been released since 1931, fulfilling a long-standing demand from various political parties and states. However, conducting such an enumeration presents complex challenges and carries profound implications for India’s social and political landscape.

What is a Census?

A census is an official enumeration of the population of a country or region, typically conducted at regular intervals (e.g., every 10 years). It involves systematically collecting, compiling, and disseminating demographic, social, and economic data pertaining to all persons in a specified area at a specified time.

• Origin in India: The practice of conducting a census in India began during the British Indian government era. The first synchronized census in India was conducted in 1881. Before that, initial attempts at enumeration were made in 1867-72. The purpose of these early censuses was often for administrative convenience, revenue collection, and understanding the social structure of the population.
• Continuation in Independent India: After India gained independence, the practice of decennial censuses continued. The first census of independent India was conducted in 1951.

Provisions in the Constitution

In India, the conduct of the census is a statutory obligation.

• Constitutional Provision: The power to legislate on census matters rests with the Central Government. Article 246 of the Constitution places “Census” as Entry 69 of the Union List (Seventh Schedule). This means the Union (Central) Government has the exclusive power to legislate on matters relating to the census.
• Legal Framework: The Census Act, 1948, provides the legal framework for conducting the census in India. It empowers the Central Government to conduct a census of the population in India or any part thereof whenever it thinks fit. The Act makes it obligatory for individuals to answer census questions truthfully and ensures the confidentiality of individual data. The Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, under the Ministry of Home Affairs, is responsible for conducting the census.

Decoding the Whole Issue: Analysis of the Caste Census

The decision to include caste enumeration in the upcoming 2027 Census is a complex issue with deep historical roots, significant data gaps, methodological challenges, and far-reaching societal impacts.

1. The Demand and Historical Context:

• Growing Demand: The demand for a caste census has been “growing for years”, particularly from the Congress party, several other members of the INDIA bloc, and many states like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
• 2011 Census Precedent: The 2011 Census did include caste enumeration, but the data was never released.
• Bihar’s State-Level Survey: Bihar conducted a state-level caste survey in 2022, which counted 63% of the state’s population as OBC. This provided recent, concrete data at a regional level, intensifying the national debate.
• Political Alignment: With the “acquiescence of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs this April, all major political interests are now aligned in favour of a caste census”. This signals broad political will for the exercise.

2. The “Massive and Critical Gap in India’s Self-Knowledge”:

• Known Data: India has reliable demographic information only for Scheduled Castes (SCs), comprising roughly 16.6% of the population, and Scheduled Tribes (STs), comprising about 8.6%. Together, they make up about one-quarter of the country’s people.
• Religious Minorities: Another 20% are people who do not identify as Hindu, including Muslims (14.2%), Christians (2.3%), Sikhs (1.7%), Buddhists (0.7%), Jains (0.4%), and others, as per the 2011 Census.
• The Undifferentiated 55%: This leaves approximately 55% of the Indian population as “undifferentiated Hindus,” encompassing Forward and Dominant Castes, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs).
• Primary Objective: The main purpose of a caste census is to “disaggregate and understand the composition of this 55%”, particularly to estimate the size and composition of the OBC population, which is widely believed to be India’s largest social group.

3. Imprecision and Uncertainty about OBC Population:

• Varying Estimates: There is significant uncertainty about the size of the OBC population:
  • Mandal Commission (1980): Placed OBCs at 52% of the total population.
  • National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO): Calculated it to be 32-36% in 2000 and 41% in 2006.
  • Other Surveys: Place the number in the 30-35% range.
• Reasons for Imprecision:
  • Self-identification Issues: People may have “mixed identities,” believe their identity doesn’t match “official categories,” or “choose not to identify as ‘Backward’ in any way”.
  • Dynamic Official Categories: The official OBC lists are not fixed; the Union Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment moves castes in and out based on “dynamic factors (like education and economic conditions)”.
  • Diversity within OBCs: The OBC category is itself very diverse. Castes that are “lagging in some regions may be dominant landowning groups or thriving small business communities in others”. There’s even a “quasi-official category called ‘upper OBCs’ that includes caste groups like Yadav, Kurmi, Koeri and Bania (in Bihar)”.

4. Challenges from Past Censuses and the “Problem” of Diversity:

• 2011 Data Release Failure: One “main reason for the caste census data of 2011 not being released” was that people self-identified in “tens of thousands of castes, so it became impossible to impose some sort of order on the data”.
• Historical Precedent: This issue mirrors challenges faced by the British Indian government. Early attempts to capture caste data under the Chaturvarna system (Brahmin, Kshatriya, Vaishya, Shudra) proved “impossible”. By the 1901 Census, 1,641 castes and sub-castes were listed; by 1931, this grew to 4,147.

5. Proposed Solution and its Deeper Implications:

• “Preset” Caste List: The “only solution” to the “problem” of diversity is to “reduce it; to impose order by using a preset rather than open-ended caste list“. This is what Bihar’s survey did and what the 2027 national Caste Census presumably plans.
• Risk of Misrepresentation: The “obvious problem” with a preset list is that “by reducing choice, millions of people may feel un- or mis-represented and therefore opt out of the system”.
• Census as a Reality-Shaping Tool: The article underscores a “deeper problem”: a census “does not merely record reality, but alters it by imposing order (by using categories and lists)”.
  • Potential Outcomes: A preset list could lead to “unlisted castes will begin to disappear as recognized social identities” or, conversely, “resistance and political action will shape future caste lists”.
• Long-Lasting Consequences: The British Indian censuses, by creating and defining categories for religion, caste, and tribe, “have come to be accepted as real and permanent”. This highlights the powerful and enduring impact of census methodology.

6. Importance of Policy and Unpredictable Political Impact:

• Data for Policy: There is “no doubt about India’s need for a Caste Census that provides robust information on the composition of 55% of its population”. This data is crucial because “Core policies on welfare, education and employment should ideally be based on this data, but have been shooting in the dark at shape-shifting targets so far”.
• Unpredictable Political Changes: However, the article cautions against underestimating the “challenges of doing this well” and emphasizes that “even if done well, the Caste Census will inevitably change the composition and politics of caste in ways that are impossible to predict now”.

In essence, the upcoming caste census in India is a monumental undertaking driven by a recognized need for robust demographic data to inform policy. However, its success hinges on navigating complex issues of self-identification, the inherent diversity of caste, and the profound, and often unpredictable, ways in which the act of enumeration itself can reshape social realities and political dynamics.

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Retail Inflation Cools to A Six-Year Low

Context: With inflation at its softest since 2018, the RBI gets room to shift focus from price control to growth support amid global uncertainties.

Source: Mint

India’s retail inflation has recently reached a six-year low in May 2025, primarily driven by a significant moderation in food prices. This development offers a breather for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), potentially allowing it to pivot from a stringent inflation-control stance towards supporting economic growth. However, underlying inflationary pressures and global uncertainties remain factors to watch.

Understanding Inflation:

To comprehend the nuances of price changes in an economy, various measures of inflation are used:

• Headline Inflation (CPI-All India): This is the most commonly reported and comprehensive measure of inflation, reflecting the overall change in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services consumed by households. In India, it is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Combined (Urban + Rural) or CPI-All India. It includes all categories, such as food, fuel, housing, education, healthcare, and more. A high headline inflation rate erodes the purchasing power of consumers.
  • In May 2025, India’s CPI-based inflation eased to 2.82% year-on-year, down from 3.16% in April and 4.8% in May last year. This marks the fourth consecutive month of sub-4% inflation, the longest such streak in at least five years.
• Food Inflation: This specifically measures the change in prices of food items within the consumer price index basket. Given that food constitutes a significant portion of the consumption basket for many Indian households, changes in food prices have a substantial impact on headline inflation and household budgets. Food inflation can be highly volatile due to supply-side shocks like monsoon variations or crop failures.
  • Food inflation came in at just 0.99% in May, a sharp decline from 1.78% in April and 8.69% a year ago.
  • While prices of cereals, eggs, meat, fish, vegetables, and pulses cooled or declined, inflation remained sticky in essential items like milk and dairy products, edible oils, and non-alcoholic beverages.
• Core Inflation: This measure excludes volatile components such as food and fuel prices from the headline CPI. Core inflation provides a clearer picture of underlying price pressures and demand-side inflation, as it is less susceptible to temporary supply shocks. Central banks often focus on core inflation for monetary policy decisions because it reflects more persistent trends.

Trends in Global and Indian Inflation in One Year

The article primarily focuses on Indian inflation trends, indicating a significant cooling in recent months.

• Indian Inflation Trend (May 2024 – May 2025):
  • Retail inflation (CPI) eased from 4.8% in May 2024 to 2.82% in May 2025.
  • Food inflation dramatically declined from 8.69% in May 2024 to 0.99% in May 2025.
  • This is the lowest retail inflation in over six years and marks the longest streak of sub-4% inflation (four consecutive months) in at least five years.
  • Inflation had previously dipped below 3% for six consecutive months between November 2018 and April 2019.
• Global Inflation Trend: Global consumer price inflation has declined significantly from its peak in 2022 but remains elevated. By early 2025, headline inflation eased to around 4.7% in January (down from ~9.5% in Sept 2022), with the OECD forecasting G20 inflation to drop to ~3.6% in 2025. The United States, Europe, Japan, and China are experiencing ongoing disinflation, though sticky services prices remain a challenge, and import-driven pressures (e.g., US tariffs) pose upside risks. Central banks in major economies have started moderating interest rates, shifting from their aggressive tightening stance, in response to these evolving inflation dynamics

Analysis of the Issue: Decoding the Favourable Backdrop for India

The recent inflation data and the RBI’s policy actions create a favourable backdrop for the Indian economy, but certain challenges and nuances need to be decoded.

1. A Breather for the RBI and Monetary Policy Pivot:

• The inflation data comes just after the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. This was the third straight cut, amounting to a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points since February.
• This move “signals a possible pivot from inflation control to supporting growth”. With headline inflation well within the RBI’s target band (2-6%), the central bank gains more flexibility to prioritize growth stimulus.
• GDP Growth Forecast: The RBI maintained its GDP growth forecast for FY26 at 6.5% in its June review, offering “a measure of stability amid persistent global uncertainties”.
• Future Policy Actions: With inflation expected to average around 4% over the year (ranging from 3.6% in Q1 to 4.4% by year-end), the RBI may “gradually shift focus from taming prices to reviving credit and supporting growth”. However, “the recent frontloaded policy actions and the guidance of limited room for incremental easing suggests prolonged pause for now, with further actions being highly data dependent”.

2. The Role of Food Prices and Uneven Moderation:

• The sharp moderation in food prices (0.99% in May) was the primary driver for the cooling of headline inflation. This offers “some relief to households”.
• However, inflation “remained sticky in essential items such as milk and dairy products, edible oils, and non-alcoholic beverages”. This highlights the “uneven nature of the overall moderation” and indicates that not all household expenses are easing at the same pace.
• Future Food Price Volatility: While overall food inflation cooled, “high-frequency data shows that vegetable and fruit prices have started surging, offsetting the downward trend visible in cereals and pulses”. This suggests that food prices could remain volatile and potentially pose a risk to the benign inflation outlook if not managed well, especially considering “monsoon developments warrant attention after progress stalled following an early onset”.

3. Core Inflation Persistence and Economic Slack:

• The fact that core inflation has remained steady in the 4-4.5% range suggests underlying price pressures persist beyond the volatile food and fuel categories.
• However, “Benign core-core prints point to economic slack”, which could provide a rationale for further monetary easing or at least sustained support for growth. Economic slack refers to the underutilization of productive resources (labour and capital) in an economy, suggesting that there is room for growth without immediately triggering inflationary pressures.

4. Positive Economic Outlook and Global Context:

• Economists expect the downward trend in retail inflation to continue through October 2025, with average inflation for FY26 likely to “undershoot the RBI’s downwardly revised estimate of 3.7%”.
• The combination of “softening price pressures and robust growth creates a favourable backdrop for the Indian economy and equity markets”. This suggests a positive environment for investment and market performance.
• Despite the domestic optimism, global uncertainties, including “rising trade and policy volatility” and the potential for “Trump-era tariffs,” are flagged as risks to India’s economic expansion.

In conclusion, India’s recent inflation cooling provides a much-needed window for the RBI to focus on growth. While the headline numbers are encouraging, the uneven nature of food price moderation and the persistent core inflation suggest that the central bank will need to remain vigilant. The overall outlook is positive, but external factors and the volatility of certain price components warrant continued monitoring.

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