Vishleshan for Regulatory Exams, 17th September 2025: The Monsoon’s Double-Edged Sword

Staying updated on economic and regulatory issues is non-negotiable for exams like RBI, SEBI, or NABARD. Every topic matters. Every update can turn into a question. In today’s Vishleshan, we focus on ”The Monsoon’s Double-Edged Sword.” This issue is timely. Its relevance is growing. And its impact is deeply linked with policy and regulation. Understanding it now will not just help in exams but also sharpen your perspective.

The Monsoon’s Double-Edged Sword

Context: This year’s excess monsoon is a double-edged sword for Indian agriculture. While it promises a good Rabi crop, the looming threats of La Niña rains and extreme winter cold could easily turn promise into peril without careful management.

Source: Business Standard

The provided article discusses the recent southwest monsoon, which has started withdrawing slightly earlier than its normal schedule after delivering about 7% excess rainfall. It highlights a dual outlook for the upcoming season: a positive one driven by full reservoirs and high soil moisture beneficial for Kharif and Rabi crops, and a concerning one due to risks from unseasonal rain, potential cold waves, and the impending La Niña conditions. The article stresses the need for proactive solutions like improved weather advisories, crop insurance, and better water management to handle the increasing weather variability, which is becoming the “new normal”.

The Indian Monsoon:

What is Monsoon?

The term ‘Monsoon’ originates from the Arabic word ‘Mausim’, which means ‘season’. It refers to a seasonal reversal of winds caused by the temperature difference between land and sea. In summer, the land heats up faster than the sea, creating a low-pressure area over the landmass that draws in moisture-laden winds from the ocean, leading to widespread rainfall. In winter, this process reverses.

India experiences two main monsoon seasons:

• The Southwest Monsoon (June – September): This is the primary rainy season for most of India, accounting for 75-80% of the country’s annual rainfall. It is the lifeline for India’s agriculture-based economy.
• The Northeast Monsoon (October – December): Also known as the “retreating monsoon”, this brings significant rainfall primarily to the southeastern coast of India, including states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Kerala and Karnataka.

Key Factors Affecting the Indian Monsoon

The Indian monsoon is a complex phenomenon influenced by several global and regional factors:

• The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): This is a low-pressure belt near the Equator where the trade winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres converge. During the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, the ITCZ shifts northward over the Indo-Gangetic plain. This northward shift is crucial for the onset and establishment of the southwest monsoon trough.
• El Niño and La Niña (ENSO):
  • El Niño: An abnormal warming of the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is often associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, leading to below-normal rainfall.
  • La Niña: The opposite of El Niño, involving the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. It is generally linked to stronger monsoons and above-normal rainfall in India, as mentioned in the article.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): This refers to the temperature difference between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. A ‘positive’ IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean) is favourable for the Indian monsoon, while a ‘negative’ IOD can weaken it.
• The Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Snow Cover: The intense heating of the Tibetan Plateau during summer creates a strong low-pressure area that strengthens the monsoon circulation. Conversely, heavy winter snow cover over the Himalayas and Tibet can lead to a weaker monsoon.

Distribution of Rainfall in India

Rainfall in India is highly uneven due to its diverse geography.

• Heavy Rainfall Areas (>200 cm): The Western Ghats, the sub-Himalayan regions in the northeast, and the hills of Meghalaya receive the heaviest rainfall. Mawsynram and Cherrapunji in Meghalaya are among the wettest places on Earth.
• Moderate Rainfall Areas (100-200 cm): Large parts of the Gangetic plains, eastern India, and the west coast receive moderate rainfall.
• Low Rainfall Areas (50-100 cm): Parts of the Deccan plateau and upper Gangetic valley.
• Scanty Rainfall Areas (<50 cm): Arid regions like Western Rajasthan, Kutch, and the rain shadow areas of the Western Ghats receive very little rainfall.

Monsoon’s Impact on India:

The monsoon is the backbone of India’s economy and society.

Positive Impacts (Normal/Excess Monsoon):

• Agriculture: Crucial for Kharif crops (paddy, maize, soybean) which are sown during the monsoon. A good monsoon ensures high agricultural output, boosting rural incomes and demand.
• Water Security: Replenishes reservoirs, dams, and groundwater tables, which are vital for drinking water, irrigation for Rabi crops (winter crops like wheat and mustard), and industrial use.
• Power Generation: Fills reservoirs, enabling optimal generation of hydroelectric power.
• Economic Stability: A healthy monsoon keeps food prices in check, controls inflation, and contributes positively to the GDP.

Negative Impacts (Deficit or Excessive Monsoon):

• Deficit Monsoon (Drought): Leads to crop failure, water scarcity, lower agricultural output, food inflation, and a strain on the national economy.
• Excess Monsoon (Floods): While replenishing water, excessive rainfall can cause devastating floods, leading to loss of life, property damage, destruction of standing crops, and outbreaks of water-borne diseases.

Monsoon’s Pattern Over the Years

Recent studies and observations indicate significant changes in monsoon patterns, likely driven by climate change:

• Increased Variability: The monsoon is becoming more erratic. There is a noticeable trend of long dry spells being punctuated by short, intense bursts of heavy rainfall.
• Delayed Withdrawal: The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon has been frequently delayed in recent years, often extending into October. This leads to more rainfall in October compared to the long-term average.
• Shift in Rainfall: Studies show a westward shift in rainfall patterns, with western and northwestern India receiving more rain, while eastern and northeastern regions are seeing a decline.
• Extreme Weather Events: The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events (cloudbursts, flash floods) have increased, causing significant damage.

Understanding the Long Period Average (LPA):

The Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall received over a particular region during a specific period (e.g., the entire southwest monsoon season) calculated over a long timeframe, typically 30 to 50 years. It serves as a crucial benchmark to predict and categorise the performance of the monsoon in a given year.

Current Methodology: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) currently uses the LPA based on the rainfall data from 1971 to 2020. The all-India LPA for the southwest monsoon season (June to September) is 87 cm (or 870 mm).

Implications and Categories: The IMD classifies the monsoon based on how the actual rainfall compares to the LPA:

• Normal: Rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the LPA.
• Below Normal: Rainfall is between 90% and 95% of the LPA.
• Above Normal: Rainfall is between 105% and 110% of the LPA.
• Deficient: Rainfall is below 90% of the LPA.
• Excess: Rainfall is above 110% of the LPA.

A forecast of a “normal” monsoon provides a sense of stability for agricultural planning and economic policy-making.

Decoding the Article: An Analysis

Now, let’s connect these concepts to the provided article.

• “7 per cent excess rain”: This means the country received rainfall that was 107% of the Long Period Average (LPA). According to the IMD’s classification, this falls into the ‘Above Normal’ category, which is generally good for agriculture and water reservoirs.
• “La Nina conditions expected by October”: As explained earlier, La Niña is associated with cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific and typically results in stronger monsoons or extended rainfall for India. This forecast suggests that even though the monsoon is withdrawing, more rain might be on the way, especially during the retreating monsoon phase.
• Promise for Agriculture (Kharif and Rabi):
  • The “brimming reservoirs and high soil moisture” from the excess monsoon are highly beneficial for the standing Kharif crops (which are in their maturing stage) and for the sowing of the upcoming Rabi crops (like wheat, mustard, and barley). Rabi crops are critically dependent on residual soil moisture and irrigation from reservoirs.
  • The article correctly points out that a good winter chill, which often follows La Niña, helps crops like wheat, potentially leading to a bumper harvest. This would enhance food security and help stabilise prices.
• The Risks Involved:
  • Rain at Harvest Time: The forecast of more rain due to La Niña poses a risk. Rain during the harvesting period of Kharif crops can damage the quality of the produce, especially perishables like fruits and vegetables, leading to post-harvest losses and a spike in food inflation.
  • Cold Waves: While a chill is good, a prolonged or extreme cold wave can lead to frost, which can severely damage crops during their flowering and grain development stages. The concern of farmers in Gujarat’s Kutch region is a specific example of this risk.
  • Waterlogging: If La Niña strengthens and the monsoon’s withdrawal is significantly delayed, continuous rain can lead to waterlogged fields, harming the roots of standing crops and affecting overall output.
• Proposed Solutions and the “New Normal”: The article advocates for a shift from a reactive to a proactive approach. The increasing unpredictability of weather—characterised by early withdrawals, late rains, and sudden temperature drops—is the “new normal”. The key solutions mentioned are:
  1. Strengthening Farmer Services: Providing timely and accurate weather advisories and promoting crop insurance.
  2. Price Monitoring: Keeping a close watch on food prices, especially perishables, and using tools like cold storage and buffer stocks to prevent shortages.
  3. Water Management: Wisely managing the water in reservoirs for irrigation and ensuring proper drainage in flood-prone areas.
  4. Long-term Investment: Investing in better weather forecasting technology, climate-resilient seed varieties, and decentralised food storage.

In conclusion, the article provides a balanced view, highlighting that while a good monsoon offers great potential for agricultural prosperity, the increasing climate variability brings new challenges that require smart, timely, and layered management.

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