Vishleshan for Regulatory Exams, 3rd September 2025: Rising Bond Yields and Government Borrowing

All those candidates who are eyeing exams like RBI, SEBI, or NABARD exams will have to stay updated with all the important economic and regulatory updates. In today’s edition of Vishleshan, we’ll discuss Government Debt and Bond Yield Trends in India. These issues are highly relevant for all the upcoming competitive exams mentioned above. Keep reading to stay ahead with a clear understanding of today’s topic.

The Name’s Bond, Government Bond!

Context: Rising bond yields in India reflect fears that new macroeconomic realities will enlarge the government’s fiscal deficit and increase public borrowing. The Reserve Bank of India should resist the urge to intervene beyond a point.

Link to the Article: Mint

The Indian bond market is currently exhibiting a peculiar trend: the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond (G-Sec) has risen to 6.6%, nearing its highest level since late March, despite strong economic growth and a series of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This seemingly contradictory behaviour is driven by the bond market’s forward-looking nature, which is anticipating increased government borrowing to counter potential economic disruptions from US tariffs and a possible shortfall in GST revenue. This hardening of yields is a “warning signal” that the government may have to borrow more than its planned target for the year.

Bonds:

• What is a Bond: A bond is a type of debt security. When an investor buys a bond, they are lending money to the issuer, which could be a government, a municipality, or a corporation. In return, the issuer promises to pay back the principal amount at a future date (maturity) and also makes periodic interest payments (coupon payments) to the investor.
• Purpose of Issuing Bonds: Bonds are a way for governments and companies to raise capital to finance projects, cover operating expenses, or refinance existing debt. For investors, they are a source of fixed income, offering a predictable stream of returns.
• Bonds vs. Other Investment Avenues:
  • Bonds vs. Stocks (Shares): When an investor buys a share, they become a co-owner of the company, and their returns are tied to the company’s profitability and stock price volatility. Bondholders, on the other hand, are creditors; they have a more secure position as they are promised a return and are repaid before shareholders if the company goes into liquidation.
  • Risk: Stocks are generally considered riskier than bonds, though some high-yield or “junk bonds” can be as volatile as shares.
• Types of Bonds in India: Bonds in India can be classified by issuer and other features.
  • By Issuer:
    • Government Bonds (G-Secs): Issued by the Central Government, these are considered the safest as they have no credit risk.
    • Corporate Bonds: Issued by companies to raise capital, these are rated based on the issuer’s creditworthiness and are riskier than government bonds.
    • Municipal Bonds: Issued by local and state governments to finance public projects.
  • By Features: Fixed-rate, floating-rate, zero-coupon, convertible, and perpetual bonds are some other types.

Bond Yield:

• Meaning: A bond’s yield is the return an investor expects to receive each year over its term to maturity. It is the rate of return on the bond, taking into account its coupon rate, market price, and time to maturity. Bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship: when bond prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.
• Bases for Fluctuation in Bond Yield:
  • Positive Direction (Yields Rise, Prices Fall): Yields rise when investors sell bonds, driving down their price. This can happen due to:
    • Expectations of Higher Inflation: Investors demand a higher return to compensate for the expected erosion of their purchasing power. The bond market is currently anticipating higher inflation in the US, which is driving up yields.
    • Increased Government Borrowing: If the government is expected to borrow more, it increases the supply of bonds, which can drive down prices and push up yields.
    • Higher Interest Rates: When central banks raise interest rates, new bonds are issued with higher yields, making existing bonds with lower yields less attractive. To compete, the prices of existing bonds must fall, causing their yields to rise.
  • Negative Direction (Yields Fall, Prices Rise): Yields fall when there is high demand for bonds, which drives up their price. This can happen due to:
    • Economic Uncertainty: In times of economic uncertainty, investors flock to safe-haven assets like government bonds, increasing demand and driving down yields.
    • Central Bank Rate Cuts: When a central bank cuts its policy rate, it typically aims to lower long-term interest rates. This makes bonds with existing yields more attractive, increasing their price and pushing down their yields.
• Yield Curve: A yield curve is a graph that plots the yields of bonds against their remaining time to maturity. A steepening yield curve (as noted in the article) is when long-term yields rise faster than short-term yields, which can signal that investors expect higher inflation or more government borrowing in the future.

Impact of Economic Developments on Bond Yield:

• Impact of Internal Economic Developments:
  • High GDP Growth: Strong economic growth can lead to expectations of higher inflation and, eventually, a rate hike by the central bank to keep prices in check. This can cause bond yields to rise as investors demand a higher return. However, bond prices and GDP show a positive but insignificant relationship in some studies.
  • Rate Cuts or Rate Hikes: A central bank’s rate cuts are typically meant to reduce long-term bond yields. However, as the article points out, this relationship is not always direct. A rate cut may fail to lower bond yields if market players have elevated long-term inflationary expectations.
• Impact of External Economic Developments:
  • US Fed’s Rate Cuts: When the US Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate, it can lead to a weaker dollar. A weakening dollar can be directionally positive for flows into emerging market (EM) debt, including Indian bonds. This can increase demand for Indian bonds and potentially lower their yields. However, the article highlights that the widening yield differential between India and the US is the key driver for foreign investment in Indian bonds, which can keep Indian yields elevated despite a potential Fed rate cut.

Operation Twist:

• What it is: Operation Twist is a monetary policy tool where the central bank conducts simultaneous buying and selling of government securities (G-Secs). The RBI, in this case, would buy long-term bonds to drive up their prices and lower their yields, while selling short-term securities to push up short-term yields.
• Purpose: The primary goal is to influence the shape of the yield curve and reduce long-term interest rates to boost investments and stimulate economic activity. Lower long-term yields make loans cheaper for both the government and the corporate sector.
• Relevance: The article suggests that the RBI, as the Centre’s debt manager, may be “tempted to groom the market” by resorting to an ‘operation twist’ to keep the government’s borrowing costs lower.

Analysis of the Article: Decoding the Hardening Bond Yields

The article analyses the recent hardening of bond yields, explaining the reasons behind the bond market’s divergence from the RBI’s accommodative policy stance and highlighting the challenges facing the government.

• The Yield and Rate Cut Divergence: The yield on the benchmark 10-year G-Sec has risen to 6.6% despite the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cutting the repo rate by 100 basis points to 5.5% since February. This is an unusual divergence.
• Market’s Rationale for Hardening Yields: The bond market’s behaviour is a forward-looking signal based on two key factors:
  1. Expected Increase in Government Borrowing: The market fears that the government will have to borrow more than its planned ₹14.82 trillion aim for the year. This is due to a combination of factors:
     • Fiscal Support for Tariff-Hit Sectors: The government will have to provide fiscal support to the labour-intensive sectors (like textiles and gems) that are impacted by the new 50% US tariffs.
     • GST Revenue Shortfall: The expected move to rationalize the GST rate structure is “bound to lower its tax mop-up,” with estimates of revenue hit ranging from ₹60,000 crore to ₹1-2 trillion.
     • Pressure on Central Finances: The fiscal gap at the end of July was already 30% of the full year’s goal, with the trade shake-up’s impact yet to kick in.
  2. Weakening Demand and Fiscal Slippage: The bond market is concerned that the government will have to keep up its support for growth through public spending, as the private sector remains reluctant to invest. A chief economist at IDFC First Bank states that the bigger risk for Indian bonds lies in “domestic dynamics”, particularly a demand-supply imbalance and concerns around potential fiscal slippage that could keep yields elevated.
• The Warning Signal: The G-Sec yield curve has steepened, with yields on long-dated securities rising more than those on shorter-dated ones. This reflects weakened demand for long-term bonds and serves as a “warning signal” that investors expect more government borrowing.
• The RBI’s Dilemma: The RBI, as the government’s debt manager, may be tempted to use tools like ‘operation twist’ to lower the government’s borrowing costs. However, the article cautions that there is a limit to how far the RBI can “push against market forces”. The final word belongs to the bond market, which, as the saying goes, can intimidate everybody, including central banks and governments.

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