Business Standard<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amidst rising global protectionism, particularly from the United States, India is strategically positioned to gain market share in its exports, especially to the US. A recent assessment by NITI Aayog’s “Trade Watch Quarterly” highlights India’s comparative tariff edge over key competitors in a majority of products exported to the US. This presents a unique opportunity for India to fast-track its trade agreements, particularly with the US, and leverage its growing competitiveness in both merchandise and services trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trade Barriers: Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trade barriers<\/strong> are government policies or regulations that restrict international trade, often implemented to protect domestic industries, generate revenue, or achieve other policy objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTariff Barriers:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nWhat:<\/strong> These are taxes or duties imposed on imported (or sometimes exported) goods<\/strong>. They directly increase the price of foreign goods, making them less competitive compared to domestic products.<\/li>\n\n\n\nExamples:<\/strong> A specific duty (a fixed fee per unit), an ad valorem duty (a percentage of the value of the goods), or a compound duty (a combination of both). The article mentions the US imposing an “additional 10 per cent tariff” on India and 20\u201350 per cent tariffs<\/strong> on competitor nations like China, Mexico, and Canada.<\/li>\n\n\n\nImpact:<\/strong> Raises import costs, generates government revenue, protects domestic industries, can lead to higher consumer prices (inflation), and may provoke retaliation from other countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nNon-Tariff Barriers (NTBs):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nWhat:<\/strong> These are non-tax measures or regulations that restrict trade<\/strong> but do not involve directly taxing imports. They can be more subtle and complex than tariffs.<\/li>\n\n\n\nExamples:<\/strong> Quotas (limits on import quantity), import licenses, embargoes, anti-dumping duties, subsidies to domestic producers, strict sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards, technical barriers to trade (TBT), local content requirements, and complex customs procedures. The article highlights the need to “resolve non-tariff barriers” in the India-US trade agreement.<\/li>\n\n\n\nImpact:<\/strong> Can be more restrictive than tariffs, increase administrative burdens and costs for importers, reduce competition, distort trade flows, and are often harder to negotiate away in trade agreements.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nHighlights of Trade Watch Quarterly:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n NITI Aayog’s “Trade Watch Quarterly” provides a comprehensive overview of India’s trade performance and strategic recommendations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nServices Trade Surplus:<\/strong> India recorded a services trade surplus of $52.3 billion in the third quarter (Q3) of FY25<\/strong>. This was driven by a 17% rise in services exports<\/strong>, particularly from information technology, consulting, and R&D services.<\/li>\n\n\n\nMerchandise Trade Gap Widens:<\/strong> During the same period (Q3 FY25), India\u2019s merchandise exports rose by 3% to $108.7 billion<\/strong>, while imports jumped 6.5% to $187.5 billion<\/strong>. The report found that the “widening goods trade gap was offset significantly by robust services performance”<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nDigitally Delivered Services (DDS) Exports:<\/strong> Reached $269 billion in 2024<\/strong>, making India the world\u2019s fifth-largest exporter in this segment<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nExports of Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts:<\/strong> Entered the top 10 export categories<\/strong>, growing by over 200% year-on-year<\/strong> due to increased demand from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the Czech Republic.<\/li>\n\n\n\nHigh-tech Merchandise Exports:<\/strong> In electrical machinery and arms\/ammunition, grew at a 10.6% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since 2014<\/strong>, reaching $80.6 billion in 2024<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nFuture Trade Outlook Recommendations:<\/strong> To leverage trade tailwinds, the report recommended:\n\nExpanding PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes to labour-intensive sectors<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nFast-tracking FTAs<\/strong>, especially with the EU and the US.<\/li>\n\n\n\nEnhancing export credit access for MSMEs (Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nBuilding digital-ready customs and trade infrastructure<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nNegotiating services-oriented FTAs, particularly with the US<\/strong>, covering data flows and professional mobility.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nWhy Have the Potential US Tariffs on Other Countries Spooked the World?<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The potential US tariffs have “spooked the world” due to several significant implications:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nDisruption of Global Supply Chains:<\/strong> Imposing high tariffs on major trading partners can disrupt intricate global supply chains built over decades, leading to higher costs, reduced efficiency, and uncertainty for businesses worldwide.<\/li>\n\n\n\nTrade Wars and Retaliation:<\/strong> US tariffs often provoke retaliatory tariffs from affected countries, leading to a tit-for-tat exchange that escalates into trade wars. This reduces overall global trade, harms export-oriented industries, and can dampen global economic growth.<\/li>\n\n\n\nIncreased Costs for Consumers and Businesses:<\/strong> Tariffs raise the prices of imported goods, directly affecting consumers and increasing input costs for businesses that rely on imported components or raw materials. This can lead to inflation and reduced purchasing power.<\/li>\n\n\n\nEconomic Uncertainty:<\/strong> The unpredictable nature of tariff imposition creates significant uncertainty for international businesses, deterring investment and long-term planning.<\/li>\n\n\n\nChallenge to Multilateral Trading System:<\/strong> Such unilateral tariff actions undermine the rules-based multilateral trading system governed by organizations like the WTO, leading to a less predictable and potentially chaotic global trade environment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nPotential Impact on India:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n India stands to potentially gain market share due to the US imposing higher tariffs on its major trade partners, primarily rivals like China, Mexico, and Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nIndia’s Comparative Edge:<\/strong> NITI Aayog states that India has a “comparative edge over key competitors in a majority of products it exports to the US”<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nDifferential Tariffs:<\/strong> The Aayog’s assessment is based on the assumption that India will face an additional 10% tariff<\/strong> (if applied), while “several other countries \u2014 including competitor nations such as China, Mexico, and Canada \u2014 will be subjected to 20\u201350% tariffs<\/strong>“.<\/li>\n\n\n\nOpportunities in Key Categories:<\/strong>\n\nIn HS2 (broad product category)<\/strong>, tariffs on competitors are higher than India\u2019s in 22 of the top 30 products<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nIn HS4 (specific product category)<\/strong>, competitors face higher tariffs than India in 80 of the top 100 products<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nThese product lines account for 22% of India\u2019s total exports to the US<\/strong>, with an export value of $17.66 billion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nHigh tariff differentials are particularly present in sectors like 63 (other made-up textile articles), 85 (electrical machinery and equipment), and 84 (nuclear reactors, machinery and parts)<\/strong>. These offer India opportunities to strengthen its market position.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\nIndia-US Yearly Trade Numbers:<\/strong>\n\nIn 2024<\/strong>, India\u2019s bilateral merchandise trade with the US stood at $123.8 billion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nIndia had a trade surplus of $37.7 billion<\/strong> in its favour.<\/li>\n\n\n\nBreak-up of Exports and Imports:<\/strong> The article highlights that product categories with India’s tariff advantage make up 22% of its US exports<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\nOngoing Negotiations:<\/strong> US President Donald Trump has been threatening “steep reciprocal tariffs from August 1” to over two dozen trade partners (primarily in Asia) but has “leaving room for negotiations”. Importantly, India has been kept out of this list so far<\/strong>. India and the US are “currently working towards finalising an interim trade deal before the deadline”.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nAnalysis of the Article: Decoding India’s Strategic Trade Positioning<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The NITI Aayog’s analysis underscores India’s strategic advantage in the current global trade environment marked by increasing US protectionism. It also highlights the urgent need for India to aggressively pursue trade agreements to capitalize on this opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. Leveraging US Protectionism as an Opportunity:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nThe core insight is that as the US raises tariffs on its major trade partners, India, by potentially facing lower tariffs (or being exempted), can “gain market share”<\/strong>. This positions India uniquely to benefit from shifting global supply chains.<\/li>\n\n\n\nThe scale of opportunity is significant, as product categories where India has a tariff advantage account for 12% of total US imports<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n2. Fast-Tracking Trade Agreements for Maximum Benefit:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nNITI Aayog’s Recommendation:<\/strong> The Aayog “recommended that the government fast-track the India-US free trade agreement with time-bound goals”.<\/li>\n\n\n\nAddressing Non-Tariff Barriers:<\/strong> A crucial aspect of these negotiations must be to “resolve non-tariff barriers” that hinder trade.<\/li>\n\n\n\nDigital Trade Rules:<\/strong> Finalizing “digital trade rules on data flows and e-signatures” is vital to support services exports, reflecting the growing importance of the digital economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n3. Focus on Services and Professional Mobility:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nThe Aayog recommended that ongoing negotiations with the US focus on key service sectors<\/strong> such as financial services and information technology.<\/li>\n\n\n\nVisa Access for Professionals:<\/strong> It called for “improved visa access for Indian professionals,”<\/strong> specifically under the H-1B and L-1 visa categories, including provisions for intra-corporate transferees and independent service providers. This is “crucial for maintaining India\u2019s competitive edge in the global services industry”.<\/li>\n\n\n\nMarket Access in New-Age Sectors:<\/strong> India should also seek firm market access in areas like cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, telecommunications, and design services<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nSimplifying Procedures:<\/strong> Joint efforts are needed with the US to “simplify licensing procedures and address cross-border data flow issues” to enable smoother market access for Indian firms.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n4. Broader Policy Recommendations for Future Trade Outlook:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\nBeyond the US deal, the report recommends:\n\nExpanding PLI schemes to labour-intensive sectors<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nFast-tracking FTAs with other partners, especially the EU<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nEnhancing export credit access for MSMEs<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\nBuilding digital-ready customs and trade infrastructure<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\nIn conclusion, India is uniquely positioned to capitalize on global trade shifts stemming from US protectionism. By aggressively pursuing a comprehensive trade agreement with the US, focusing on both merchandise and services, and concurrently implementing internal reforms to boost competitiveness, India can significantly enhance its market share and solidify its position as a global export powerhouse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Preparing for RBI Grade B Exam 2025? Check out the most affordable and effective courses by clicking on the banner below:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NITI Aayog\u2019s new report shows how US tariffs on China, Mexico, and others may lift India\u2019s export share. This Vishleshan covers key regulatory insights relevant for UPSC, SEBI, RBI, and NABARD aspirants. Stay informed with strategic analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":160763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4022],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-160746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vishleshan"],"yoast_head":"\n
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<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n